Walking In Faith

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The Not Too Distant Future - Written: 1/31/2006

I am one of those guys who like to think about what the future holds, especially when it comes to society and the economy in general. As a reporter, I am always looking for trends and things that may be a sign of a major shift to come.

Based on some of my research over the past couple of years, here are some of my predictions for how society and the business world will change in the not too distant future.

U.S. Political

  • Instead of talking about red and blue states, the news will be filled with more about a rural/urban split on hot button issues, especially those impacting private property, the environment, urban sprawl, gun laws, etc. The rural mindset can be extremely different from that of the typical urban voter. This will become more apparent and possibly bitter in the coming years.

  • Privacy issues will become even more important as terrorism, identify theft and new technologies make it more of a common problem.

  • Unions will begin to lose their power as more people become freelancers or self employed.

  • Hispanic voters could forever change the landscape if they organize and vote.

  • Following in the steps of Sodom and Gomorrah, same sex marriage laws will become more common. Companies will be pressured to give employee benefits to same sex partners. 

Consumer Life

  • Housing costs will continue to rise way beyond the cost of living increases or worker raises. Many young families will be priced out of the housing market. More young couples will move in or share homes with their parents and/or in-laws. The older generation will be able to pay while the younger can provide a better quality of life and assistance as the baby boomers get older.   

  • The cost of college education will continue to skyrocket, forcing more low cost options to the traditional, major university. Many middle class families will not be able to afford to send their kids to college.

  • Major companies will do away with many of the great benefits that the boomers expected as part of working for the company store. This will push even more responsibility onto the worker to pay for benefits, especially retirement.

  • As young consumers spend more on housing and education than previous generations, their discretionary income will go down. Depression will increase as generation X and millennials struggle to cope with a lower standard of living than they were used to as children. The party will be over, and they will be the one left to carry the burden. Ouch! 

  • Young workers will work longer hours for less pay compared to what their parents experienced. This will reduce the amount of volunteer and charity work done by people.

  • New drugs will allow people to live a lot longer, which will put a major strain on the healthcare system. Some will talk about the "necessity" of euthanasia. The political power of the boomers will keep this from happening. Healthcare resources will be limited. And boomers will be able to afford more than the older Xers.  

  • Co-ops will become more common for just about everything as people seek to combine purchasing power as a way to counter act rising costs.

Business Rebooted

  • The U.S. economy will falter when China stops financing America's consumer spending. As better investment options open up, China will slowly begin to pull capital from the U.S. market, which will cause the dollar to lose value and the U.S. economy to enter a major recession. 

  • The next battle ground for corporate America may very well be what brought the NY city transit system to its knees - pensions. Major corporations are cash strapped with huge pension and medical benefit liabilities. The boomers and older Xers will enjoy these benefits as the expense of the current workers. Some companies may not be able to handle the burden. This may cause them to go bankrupt and possibly require a government bailout.

  • Logistics technology, empowered by radio frequency identification (RFID), will continue to reduce inventory required to supply demand. Retailers will gain even more data to control production and get consumers exactly what they want when they want it. This will continue to put pressure on transportation and distribution systems.

  • RFID will also cut many frontline retail jobs, especially at major retailers.

  • Overseas outsourcing becomes more of a problem for the service and technology sector. More than just sending manufacturing overseas, multinational corporations will increasingly send more service and technology functions to Asian markets. China, India and other countries will keep more of their best minds and talent, many of whom used to come to the West for education and good careers.

  • The Internet looks like the next big thing to differentiate the U.S. economy for other places in the world. China's tight censorship/control mindset will hurt it in this part of the new economy.

  • The number of available U.S. government jobs will mushroom in the next ten years as many employees reach retirement age.

  • About 40-50% of the populations within 50 years will be either self employed, contract workers or freelancers versus being employed by a company. Look for more and more people to work from home.